The Russian Situation, Background and 1st look at the new US diplomatic imperative

This offer of Obama's not to put missiles on Russia's border in exchange for their helping us to isolate Iran is fucking hilarious, if you think about it.
 
After the breakup of the Soviet Union, the US started beating the Russians with political, economic, and military sticks. That worked well for our selfish interests then, but now things have changed. Now the Russian Bear has risen out of the ashes of the Soviet Collapse, and the US empire is tottering, in its turn.
 
Obama's offer is an insult considering our actions in the Balkans, the Baltic, and the Black Sea regions for the last 17 years.
 
Presently, the nations in the Balkans, the Black Sea, and the Baltic regions are on the verge of economic and political collapse. And now we've found jesus, and want to be friends with the Russians. Too bad we've been beating them with sticks for last 17 years. The Russians have little incentive to cooperate. Our influence is diminishing in all the regions along their borders where we intruded.
 
The other problems with our new "friendly" approach is first, that it's way out of character for us, and second, our offer does not fit the "facts on the ground," as we like to say. The operative fact controlling the situations in the post-Soviet states and the Middle-East is that we've acted the role of a predatory Corporate Empire since the fall of the Soviet Union.
 
Western Interventions
Domestically, after the fall of the Soviet Union, we intervened in the internal affairs of Russia by backing the oliarch's rip-off of the totality of Russia's industrial base and its natural resources. Putin was Russia's responce to the reign of American-style robber barons in Russia.
 
In the Black Sea Region, we ran a series of American Funded "color revolutions" that pushed Western Backed Regimes into power, right under the soft underbelly of Russia.
 
Then we put troops into Afganistan, destabilizing both Afghanistan and Pakistan, while spreading our political influence and military presence into the now independent "stans" along Russia's Southern border.
 
Then we began to move NATO military forces and treaties across the post-Soviet states right up to the Russian border. Finally, to perfectly combine insult with injury, we began the work to install anti-missile systems right on Russia's borders.
 
Despite Russia's serious responces to our aggressions, we decided to add insult to injury by recognizing Kosovo. Finally, we armed Georgia and encouraged them to settle their dispute with Russia by military means. Shortly thereafter, our Georgian ally invaded Russia's pet breakaway states, South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
 
Since the the fall of the Soviet Union we have used concerted political, economic, and military pressure to pull these now floundering post-Soviet States into our sphere of control. Now these regions are suffering terribly from the brutal economic effects of their Western alliance.
 
And now that our relationships in the post-Soviet states are floundering, our wars failing, and with our economy in full collapse, we are offering Russia worthless concessions from our weakening regional and global position in exchange for abandoning their increasingly advantagous position in Middle-Eastern diplomacy that Russia's relationship with Iran has created.
 
The American Answer
Our "solution" to the rise of a rapidly rearming Russia, a problem we ourselves created, is to ask them to weaken themselves by ending their deep nuclear, regional, political, and strategic relationship with Iran in exchange for us not acting stupid, and putting missiles on their borders.
 
 
We are making this offer at the very moment when Western economic and political relationships with the Balkans, the Baltic, and the Black Sea nations within the sphere of influence of the American Corporate Empire is on the point of complete collapse. The post-Soviet nations are posing a significant threat of defaulting and seriously damaging the European, if not the global banking system. The situation is not much different for the US In the Middle-East.
 
Iran has risen as the #1 native, independent power in the Middle-East, and is leading the charge to remove American influence from the region. In essence, we are asking Russia to abandon their deep relationship with Iran, just as the balance of power in the Middle-East is shifting away from Western-backed dictatorships and "kings" and "emirs" towards locally-controlled independent nations.
 
 
The Real Situation
In the present situation there seem to be a number of things that Russia would want the US to begin unwinding before they even stopped laughing about Obama's lame offer, and made a counter offer. let's consider the relatitive position of Russia and the American Corporate Empire in the Balkans.
 
 
The Balkans have not become an independent, neutral area between Europe and Russia, as promised by Bush I. Bush I promised the Soviets a neutral zone in the Balkans and the Black Sea nations to forestall an ugly military responce by the crumbling Soviet Union as their empire imploded. Bush I, and every president since has broken that promise.
 
Rather than a peaceful, neutral breakup of the Balkans, the US encouraged a free for all that ended up in a series of brutal regional wars that have deeply polarized the region. The Balkans are still deeply unbalanced in the wake of our irresponsibility following the Soviet breakup. Now these unbalances are being pressurized by the economic collapse of the American Corporate Empire.
 
The American Corporate Empire's economic and political relationship with the Balkans, the Baltic, and the Black Sea nations is on the point of complete collapse, along with their "free-market" economies. Going along with the "liberal" system (that's what Europeans call rule by the rich) has proven to be quite disastrous for the post-Soviet states. Added to that is the fact that a large majority of the people in Czechoslovakia, and 56% in conservative Poland, oppose American missiles in their country.
 
 
The Russian Responce I
Russia responded to these encroachments by the West in the post-Soviet states with a tool of the West: Capitalism. Russia forced all of these Westernizing countries to pay market prices for previously subsidized energy. For some reason the Western Capitalist states freaked out when Russia stopped subsidizing the energy costs of the Westen takeover of the post-Soviet states. In any case, Russia already had significant economic leverage through controlling the region's energy supply, and now the American Economic meltdown is enhancing Russia's economic clout in the region. Russia has no incentive whatsoever to save Eastern Europe for Western Capitalism, no matter where we put our missiles.
 
The Russian Responce II
In the meantime Russia has been working to slowly reestablish and deepen its relationship with Serbia, and further extend Russia's influence across the Balkans and into Europe through energy deals. We could try to  counter this with another offer not to extend our political and military influence into the Balkans, the Black Sea, and the Baltic, but our previous lies may have spoiled that option. Russia can now exercise superior economic, political, and military influence in all of the post-Soviet states than the US.
 
The American offer not to deploy missiles also conveniently forgets that Russia has already made a "negative" offer to the US. Russia offered not to move mobile nuclear weapons targeted on European capitols up to its Western borders, if the US does not install missile bases on Russia's borders. Russia already countered the US's "negative" offer not to put missles on their borders with a "negative" offer of their own. But the expansion of America's corporate empire up to Russia's border has not gone unanswered. Russia has significantly expanded their efforts to project military and diplomatic power in the post-Soviet states, the Middle-East, and the world.
New Global Balance of Power Rising
Russia is broadly rearming in response to our provocations. Russia has taken up new regional and global relationships and policies in responce to our Empire's widespread aggressions.
 
Regionally, in the post-Soviet regions and Europe, Russia has suspended compliance with the treaty limiting ground forces in Europe, has deployed new sophisticated missiles in Western Russia targeted on European capitols, and announced a pre-emptive nuclear strike policy to match ours. In their South, Russia has just paid Kyrgyzstan to remove our airbase there that is vital to supplying our failed war in Afghanistan, and has denied NATO allies use of the facilities as well.
 
In the Middle-East, Russia has provided Iran with a strategic mutual-defense treaty, serious political support, nuclear technology, and their most advanced anti-aircraft weapons. Russia has reestablished a strong diplomatic beach head in the Middle-East through their strong relationship with Iran. Russia will not abandon this position.
 
Globally, Russia has provocativly restarted strategic nuclear bomber flights and global and regional blue-water naval patrols. Russia has established deep economic relationships with China, based on long-term energy deals that diffused their traditional border conflicts. Russia is arming and equiping Venesuela and is once again supporting Cuba. In other words, Russia has responded very strongly, and very successfully, to the expansion of America's Corporate Empire in their backyard, the Middle-East, and the world.
 
Now we are experiencing the fun of watching the Empiric Contest beween the declining West and the Newly-Rising Russians once again emerge in the Balkans, the Black Sea, and the Baltics.
 
Fri 3-6-09: This is still a working draft

Submitted by alexwierbinski on Sat, 03/07/2009 - 05:58.

I would agree that Russia is

I would agree that Russia is re-asserting itself on the global stage. Their grip over Europe's energy supply has helped them put pressure on EU nations, and its growing influence in the Middle East/South America/Asia is not making the U.S. happy. However, I don't believe Russia is as big of a threat (or will ever become) as the Soviet Union was. Before the Soviets collapsed, their economy was largely isolated and focused on non-imported goods. The Russian economy is not this way. They buy western goods, and are dependent upon the sale of their natural resources to the West (primarily Europe). Their dependence on the Global economy means they will not be reckless in their military actions. I think the recent offers by the two nations is nothing but posturing by the administrations...nothing to be significantly worried about.

--
Frank
Immigration lawyer

Hi Frank

Sorry about my delay in responding. I actually wrote a reasoned response, yesterday, and the whole thing disappeared in a damn computer glitch! Arrrgg! I had to get along with my other life after that frustration.

The gist of my reply was that the convergence of capitalist economic tools with Russia's new version of centralized state power, (Czar, Stalin, to...Putin?) indicates that their incorporation of modified Capitalist forms may in fact present a greater threat to the US than during their Soviet period, when their military power was decidedly not matched by their economy. This has dramatically changed.

The reason for this is not so much Russia, as it is the US. The driving factor conditioning Russia's restoration of their regional, if not global military power and reach, has been the steady movement of American military and economic power up to Russia's borders. They have asked us nicely hundreds of times not to continue our expansion into their backyard.

Now there are vacuums of power that the rising global hatred of the US, our drastic military blunders, and the dramatic loss of US economic influence has created around the world. It appears that Russia is going to "capatilize" on our blunders.

Russia is quite well equipped to step into these voids, as is China to a lesser extent. (I believe that China has serious internal problems which will restrict their growing global influence until resolved)

Let's look at how the US used industrialism as step in our transition to consumerism, which then became the foundation of our current global economic/military ascendancy. This demonstrates that economic engagement does not neutralize power relationships, it just gives another dimension to these power relationships.

We have always said otherwise, that economic relationships bring peace, but I believe that is a function of our self-approval of the system we used to dominate global economics. Let's see if we still believe that when we are no longer using our economic influence to dominate, but are being dominated by outside economic influences.

I believe our view of the situation will change when we are no longer on top the the situation. Let's see if we still believe that economic relationships bring peace when we are no longer capable of dominating the world economically, and the world, led by China, imposes a South-American style austerity program on the United States.

Now Russia has moved away from their Soviet-Era economic isolation, and appears to be adopting sufficient capitalist economic forms to add a new dimension of power, force, to their already substantial tool belt of international powers.

I am not suggesting that Russia will be reckless, but it does appear that militarization offers them the physical credibility in the post-Soviet states, the Middle-East and Iran, and don't forget South America, that remaining disarmed could not provide.

I look at their rising military buildup as the bead in the oyster that draws the pearl. In this case their military will cast a deeper shadow than it already is casting across Venezuela, Cuba, Iran and the Middle-East. Political and economic relations with Russia will grow in this shadow protected by their rising diplomatic and military power.

But this time they do not just possess the second most sophisticated weapons in the world, they also have oil on the world markets, high technology capabilities, and a developing quasi-capitalism (??) that may well prove more resilient and adaptable in this economic meltdown than the American System.

Check out the link list on Russia, below, which well documents their attempts to come to non-military resolutions of our increasing presence along all their borders.

Unfortunately, we re-sparked the old-school "big game" contest for empire and world power when it was to our advantage.

I believe that Obama will be neither willing nor able to change this, and the resolution to the rising conflicts with the US all along Russia's borders will now be resolved based on the relative balance of wealth, power, influence, and diplomatic positioning of the participants, rather than either Russia's or America's stated ethics.

This means that our influence on Russia's borders, the post-soviet states, and around the world are at significant risk of serious decline.

Imagine a new version of the non-aligned movement of the 1960s, but this time led by Russia and based on excluding American Dominance from various regions of the Earth.

It would surprise me much less if we (the US) sparked a broader war to maintain/regain our diminishing regional power in the whole post-soviet, Afghanistan, and the middle-east than if Russia attacked, which I consider highly unlikely.

Thanks for giving a damn!

Alex

Russia links; http://committeefordemocracy.org/Corruption_Updates_104.html#l5